For the week ending August 22, we have a crude draw of 6.04 million bbls. This compares to the 5.323 million bbl draw for the 5-year average.

Looking at forward US crude storage projections, we think this is the bottom in US commercial crude storage.

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For the week ending July 11, we have a small crude draw of 0.88 million bbls. This will be lower than the 5-year average draw of 2.282 million bbls.

Over the past two weeks, the EIA reported crude storage figures that were ~14 million barrels higher than our estimate. We noted in a post last week that this is likely due to volatile timing on crude imports/exports, which should be corrected over the coming weeks.

The other explanation for the significantly higher crude builds is the materially higher US crude oil production, which is difficult to explain. However, we are not dismissing this potential, so the data for the coming weeks will be crucial to understanding the production outlook.

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For the week ending June 13, we have a crude draw of 6.21 million bbls. This is a much larger draw compared to the -2.633 million bbls for the 5-year average.

With refinery throughput at ~17 million b/d and an early start to the crude draw season, the current trajectory is unsustainable. US commercial crude storage will get so tight as to shut-in US crude exports or US refinery throughput will fall.

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For the week ending May 2, we have a small crude build of 0.37 million bbls. This is lower than the 5-year average build of ~2.8 million bbls.

In the coming weeks, we will start to see US commercial crude storage trend lower. The more promising trend we are seeing is taking shape in product storage, which I will explain more below.

But first, let's look at the US crude storage trend:

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For the week ending April 11, we have a crude build of 3.7 million bbls. We are now approaching the final innings of the crude builds in US commercial crude storage. Starting in late April, we expect to see US commercial crude storage trending lower.

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For the week ending March 14, we have a small crude draw of 0.31 million bbls.

Readers need to keep in mind that in last week's EIA oil storage report, our modified adjustment showed a large negative figure (-900k b/d). This could be partly due to a mismatch in export/import.

If there's some level of catch-up in this week's report, EIA will likely show a build of 3-5 million bbls.

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For the week ending March 7, we have a crude storage build of 9.59 million bbls. This is largely the result of lower-than-normal crude exports and slightly higher w-o-w crude imports.

US crude exports are expected to remain low for next week's report as well, so US commercial crude storage is expected to build.

Looking at our US crude storage forecast, this is what we see:

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For the week ending Feb 28, we have a small crude build of 1.4 million bbls.

This build will be slightly lower than the 5-year average build of 2.478 million bbls.

All eyes will be on product storage as heating-related demand will be at the seasonal average for this week.

Looking at our US crude storage forecast, this is what we see:

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For the week ending Feb 21, we have a crude draw of 3.63 million bbls. This week's crude draw is fueled by 1) higher US crude exports and 2) lower US crude oil production due to colder-than-normal weather.

The freeze-off is milder than normal as we saw in the natural gas production data. Roughly only ~5 Bcf/d were lost, which translates into ~500k b/d of production lost.

For total liquids, we expect this week to show a draw close to ~10 million bbls.

Looking at our US crude storage forecast, this is what we see:

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For the week ending Feb 14, we have a small crude draw of 0.4 million bbls. This compares to the 5-year average build of 3.475 million bbls.

Just a heads up, we are being conservative with our estimate this week. Judging by the 3-2-1 crack spread movement, we suspect US refinery throughput is higher, which should show a larger crude draw. It is very likely that EIA reports a higher crude draw than our figure.

Looking at US crude storage balance, this is what we see:

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For the week ending Feb 7, we have a crude build of 7 million bbls.

This week's crude build is the result of very low US crude exports. This is expected to be temporary as tanker tracking activity shows a pick-up for next week.

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For the week ending Jan 31, we have a crude build of 4.13 million bbls. Lower-than-normal refinery throughput continues to weigh on crude balances, while US oil production will still be lower than normal due to the freeze-off from the previous week.

Looking at US crude storage balance, this is what we see:

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For the week ending Jan 24, we have a crude build of 7.54 million bbls.

For readers that followed our last week's estimate, please note that we did not estimate that big of a drop in refinery throughput. This delta coupled with our miss on US oil production explained why US crude storage did not draw as much.

This report along with last week's report is hard to estimate due to the cold weather event we saw. Refinery throughput is expected to drop again this week. We are estimating ~15.5 million b/d down from 15.522 million b/d.

Based on Lower 48 natural gas production, we know US oil production dropped this week, so we are pegging it around ~12.5 million b/d.

In total, we see a large build. But I think this is a low-confidence forecast as the cold weather materially impacts the figures.

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For the week ending Jan 17, we have a crude draw of 10.84 million bbls. This is an exceptionally large crude draw for this time of the year. This is mainly thanks to very low crude imports and very high crude exports. This is not expected to continue into next week.

Looking at our US crude storage forecast:

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For the week ending Jan 10, we have a small crude draw of 2.07 million bbls. This is bullish relative to the 5-year average build of 1.609 million bbls.

Looking at our data, US crude exports and imports remained low last week, while we expect US oil production to suffer from colder-than-normal temperatures. We saw Lower 48 gas production take a meaningful hit, so we expect the same on the US oil production side. Although we think the impact is closer to ~500k b/d, we are being cautious by only inputting -300k b/d.

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For the week ending Jan 3, we have a crude build of 5.41 million bbls. US crude exports are materially lower resulting in crude storage to build.

Relative to the 5-year average showing no change in storage, this report will be perceived bearishly. There are also tax games being played so hence the larger than normal build to start the year.

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For the week ending Dec 20, we have a crude draw of 6.74 million bbls.

API already reported a draw of 3.2 million bbls and with the API vs EIA crude running error near an all-time high, API was going to be more bearish than EIA for crude.

With the API crude storage draw of 3.2 million bbls, EIA will report a crude draw close to our estimate.

Looking at the US commercial crude storage chart, we are going to finish year-end at a 5-year low:

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For the week ending Dec 6, we have a crude build of 5.8 million bbls. The build is the result of a steep drop-off in crude exports. Tanker activities show crude exports close to ~3.06 million b/d, while crude imports remain elevated.

Looking at our US crude storage forecast, this is what we see:

For this week, the 5-year average shows a build of 3.48 million bbls. If EIA confirms a build of 5.8 million bbls, this would be considered bearish.

More importantly, the drop in US crude exports this week does not appear to be an anomaly just yet. Tanker activities for this week also show low crude exports, while crude imports are elevated. We suspect this is a timing issue with how tankers have been delayed in offloading crude, while crude exports lag.

This means the last 2-weeks should see elevated crude draws. In addition, tax purposes also incentivize refineries to reduce crude storage as much as possible before year-end.

We expect US commercial crude storage to finish the year around ~415 million bbls.

Looking at products, we are seeing builds matching that of 2022 and 2023. The important question will be how much we build going into year-end. As you can see in 2023, the last two weeks saw sizable builds, while 2022 saw builds fall resulting in a bullish start to 2023.

The 3-2-1 crack spread has been lackluster indicating that the market doesn't expect extreme tightness or any further loosening.

I expect product storage to finish right around the ~390 million bbl area.

If this is the case, both crude and product storage will have trended right around the 2021 level going into year-end.

In terms of oil price, this should, in theory, give WTI a fair value of around $76 to $78. However, with the market still expecting a surplus in 2025, inventories will have to trend bullish in Q1 to invalidate those bearish concerns.

API vs EIA

API vs EIA running error is ~8 million bbls above zero. This means API will be biased to the bear side relative to EIA.

For our crude estimate to be right, API would have to report +6 to +8 million bbls. If API reports below this level, then EIA crude build will be less than our estimate.

Analyst's Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours.

For the week ending Nov 29, we have a small crude draw of 0.85 million bbls. This week's crude draw is less than normal because of the recent drop in refinery throughput. As we will explain below, total liquids should see a sizable draw.

For US crude storage, this is what we are seeing:

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For the week ending Nov 15, we have a crude draw of 4.11 million bbls. This week's draw will be bullish as the 5-year average is a build of 1.635 million bbls.

Looking at US commercial crude storage, this is what we are seeing:

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