<![CDATA[HFI Research: Trades]]>https://www.hfir.com/s/tradeshttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Ucpd!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F12fbcf47-fcef-46ba-b6de-b827d1d73499_771x771.pngHFI Research: Tradeshttps://www.hfir.com/s/tradesSubstackMon, 11 May 2026 01:41:20 GMT<![CDATA[Trade Alert - Long BNO Calls]]>https://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-long-bno-calls-276https://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-long-bno-calls-276Fri, 08 May 2026 13:44:48 GMTTRADE ALERT

(HFI Portfolio)

I bought 265 BNO Jan 2027 $70 strike calls for $6.31, $167,215.

]]><![CDATA[Trade Alert - Raising Cash]]>https://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-raising-cashhttps://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-raising-cashMon, 04 May 2026 17:12:53 GMTTrade Alert

Selling all of Chemours at $26.71 for a gain of 126.55%.

Selling all of AdvanSix at $25.23 for a gain of 45.84%.

Selling all of MPLX at $57.13 for a gain of 7.05%.

Selling all of Alibaba at $134.42 for a gain of 14.70%.

Selling all of Pinduoduo at $98.11 for a loss of 23.05%.

We are raising cash to be ready to deploy when more opportunities come. 

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Trade Alert - Long BNO Calls]]>https://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-long-bno-callshttps://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-long-bno-callsFri, 01 May 2026 15:08:00 GMTTrade Alert

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Trade Alert - Long CNQ]]>https://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-long-cnqhttps://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-long-cnqMon, 27 Apr 2026 19:38:35 GMTTrade Alert

Long 10% in CNQ in the HFI Portfolio.

CNQ is trading at 6.8x EV/FFO at $85/bbl WTI. We don’t think that’s right at all. This is the best Canadian oil producer by a mile with decades of inventory.

Long $500,000 of CNQ at $44.98 or 11,115 shares.

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Trade Alert - Long BNO Call Option]]>https://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-long-bno-call-optionhttps://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-long-bno-call-optionThu, 16 Apr 2026 17:25:50 GMTTrade Alert

Long 1,500 BNO $60 strike calls at $3.45 July 17, 2026 expiry in the HFI Portfolio.

This is a conviction bet position for us.

Rationale:

Backwardation roll yield in Brent futures offer BNO a natural upside return over the coming months. BNO is currently in June futures with rolls to July contracts expected soon.

June Brent is trading at $99.57 wh…

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Trade Alert - Selling Tronox And Kronos]]>https://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-selling-tronox-and-kronoshttps://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-selling-tronox-and-kronosFri, 10 Apr 2026 17:38:12 GMTTrade Alert

Selling all of Tronox and Kronos.

Sell all of TROX at $9.16 for a gain of ~145.5%.

Sell all of KRO at $6.61 for a gain of ~33%.

Reasoning:

Our oil market view is that demand destruction is coming. Economically sensitive names like TROX and KRO will be negatively impacted. Names like Chemours will be partially insulated due to the refrigerant busi…

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Trade Alert - Buying More USO And UCO]]>https://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-buying-more-uso-and-ucohttps://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-buying-more-uso-and-ucoWed, 08 Apr 2026 13:41:50 GMTTrade Alert

Buying more USO and UCO for the HFIR Oil Trading Portfolio.

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Trade Alert - Long USO And UCO]]>https://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-long-uso-and-ucohttps://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-long-uso-and-ucoTue, 10 Mar 2026 18:58:40 GMTTrade Alert

Both are for the oil trading portfolio.

Long USO at $103.15 for $100,000 or 969 shares.

Long UCO at $33.14 for $50,000 or 1,508 shares.

Rationale:

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Trade Alert - Closing Our USO Position]]>https://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-closing-our-uso-positionhttps://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-closing-our-uso-positionTue, 03 Mar 2026 18:42:22 GMTTrade Alert

Closing our USO long position at $90.15 for a gain of 22.55%.

WTI reached our target of $75 and was not able to hold. We believe most of the geopolitical risk premium is priced in. However, if tanker flows continue until the end of this week, we will have been early in selling our USO long position. We are fine with missing the last leg.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours.

]]><![CDATA[Trade Alert - Long BOIL]]>https://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-long-boil-11ehttps://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-long-boil-11eFri, 27 Feb 2026 16:24:43 GMTTrade Alert

Long $100k of BOIL at $16.35 or 6,116 shares.

No stop-loss on this as we will monitor it closely.

Rationale:

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Trade Alert - Exiting UCO]]>https://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-exiting-ucohttps://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-exiting-ucoFri, 20 Feb 2026 19:06:08 GMTTrade Alert

Exiting all of UCO at $24.89 for a gain of 17.52%.

We are not making any changes to our USO position.

Rationale: Please see our update from yesterday.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of USO either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives.

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Trade Alert - Exiting UNG]]>https://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-exiting-unghttps://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-exiting-ungFri, 13 Feb 2026 19:53:47 GMTTrade Alert

Selling all of UNG at $12.49 for a gain of 1.21%.

We don’t like the weather risk related to the March contracts. We are keeping our BOIL long position.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of BOIL either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives.

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Trade Alert - Long UNG And BOIL ]]>https://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-long-ung-and-boilhttps://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-long-ung-and-boilWed, 11 Feb 2026 20:03:42 GMTTrade Alert

We are going long $150k of UNG (March Henry Hub contracts) at $12.34 or 12,155 shares.

We are going long $75k of BOIL (May Henry Hub contracts) at $18.97 or 3,953 shares.

Stop-loss for UNG is $11.19.

Stop-loss for BOIL is $16.55.

Rationale:

Weather models have ebbed and flowed over the past week and the latest forecast is not the torch pattern the…

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Trade Alert - Selling BOIL]]>https://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-selling-boilhttps://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-selling-boilFri, 30 Jan 2026 19:14:02 GMTTrade Alert

Selling all of our BOIL long position at $39.46.

Weather models have introduced more uncertainty in the forecast. We will come back at a later time if we find the risk/reward more attractive.

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Trade Alert - Long UCO]]>https://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-long-uco-6e5https://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-long-uco-6e5Wed, 21 Jan 2026 17:44:37 GMTTrade Alert

The oil market is not pricing in the incoming cold risk correctly. While the natural gas market always tends to price it in almost immediately, the oil market is not.

Looking at the current projections, US crude oil production will fall by ~500k b/d from freeze-off for the last week of Jan. Spike in heating demand from the US to Europe will bo…

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Trade Alert - Long BOIL]]>https://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-long-boil-b3ahttps://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-long-boil-b3aThu, 15 Jan 2026 17:36:45 GMTTrade Alert

We are going to attempt another long here with BOIL. The rationale is that the market is starting to price in a very bearish storage scenario when the outlook is not nearly as bad.

Given the variability in the forecast, we think the market is skewing too much to the bear side. With that said, if the weather models pivot to the bear side, we co…

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Trade Alert - Long USO ]]>https://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-long-usohttps://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-long-usoTue, 13 Jan 2026 18:20:17 GMT
A megaphone booming out speech bubble messages with sound waves

Trade Alert

Long $400,000 of USO in the HFI Portfolio at $73.56, or 5,437 shares.

Rationale: Article incoming for why.

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Trade Alert - Long BOIL]]>https://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-long-boil-a0bhttps://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-long-boil-a0bMon, 05 Jan 2026 16:03:48 GMTTrade Alert

Latest 15-22 Day

(Natural gas trading portfolio)

Long $100,000 BOIL at $18.88 or 5,296 shares.

Target is $27.2.

Stop-loss is $17.3.

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Trade Alert - Closing Out XLE Hedge, Buying AR]]>https://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-closing-out-xle-hedgehttps://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-closing-out-xle-hedgeMon, 29 Dec 2025 18:31:30 GMTTrade Alert

We are closing out our XLE short (hedge) position for a loss of 5.31% at $44.63.

For the main HFI Portfolio, we are buying Antero Resources.

Buy $400,000 of AR at $34.48 or 11,600 shares.

Rationale:

The rationale for closing out the XLE hedge is the following:

  • We want to focus our attention on how to take advantage of the incoming oil cycle turn.

  • W…

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Trade Alert - Long SOC Puts]]>https://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-long-soc-putshttps://www.hfir.com/p/trade-alert-long-soc-putsFri, 07 Nov 2025 19:12:08 GMTTrade Alert

Buying $100,000 of SOC Dec 26, 2025 $3 strike puts for $0.50, or 2,000 contracts.

Read more

]]>