2024 Global Oil Supply & Demand Balance Favors The Bulls

We are now halfway through 2023 and as we compiled our global oil supply & demand balance for 2024, we can't help but reach a few very straightforward conclusions:

• The deficit of H2 2023 will persist into 2024.

• US oil production growth or lack thereof is an asymmetric variable for the bulls.

• Saudi and Russia's participation is key to maintaining a large deficit this year, but by H2 2024, spare capacity will need to be materially reduced to avoid catastrophe.

• Global oil demand growth centered in non-OECD. OECD demand is expected to decline y-o-y in our model.

• Despite extremely conservative demand assumptions, we have a material inventory draw in 2024.