An Important Update On US Oil Production

Last Friday, EIA published its monthly US oil production data for June. US oil production reached 13.214 million b/d with the adjustment figure at +96k b/d. Total US oil production + adjustment totaled 13.310 million b/d. If we include transfers to crude oil supply, the total crude supply was 13.998 million b/d.

Looking at our US oil production matrix, you can see that the EIA + adjustment figure aligned with our model.

Our real-time US oil production tracking has been able to predict with ease the monthly US oil production figures and I have no doubt this will continue to deliver.

Looking at our latest real-time US oil production data, it is very clear to us that the growth has evaporated this summer. While June data was expected to be strong, both July and August US oil production is expected to be lower than June.

Based on our estimate, US oil production has averaged just below ~13.1 million b/d for July and August. This reflects a decrease of 196k b/d y-o-y.

Why is this important?