Brace For Impact On Natural Gas As Weather Models Turn Bearish
Just when we thought Mother Nature would play nice this winter, a curveball is thrown at the bulls. From overly bullish weather to a bearish outlook now, natural gas is playing yo-yo on traders' souls.
In the latest ECMWF-EPS update, weather models are now firmly in the bearish category with the 10-15 day showing a warmer than normal trend to continue.
ECMWF-EPS HDDs
6-10 Day
10-15 Day
15-Day
For readers that have been staying up to date with our natural gas analysis, you will know that when Alaska shows a trough pattern (blue in Alaska), it is usually a bearish signal and projects warmer than normal weather in the Lower 48.
Given the latest ECMWF-EPS update, the models are certain a warmer-than-normal period is on the horizon. But one thing going in favor for the bulls is that next week's EIA natural gas storage report will show one of the highest withdrawals for this time of the year: