December US Oil Production Is Disappointing To The Downside And What This Means For 2025
I wanted to wait for this week's EIA oil storage report before I came to a conclusion on December US oil production. And with this week's data, it appears clear to me that US oil production will be coming in below consensus expectations exiting the year.
Based on our real-time US oil production tracking, US oil production is currently tracking around ~13 million b/d, which is below where we were in December 2023. I think this figure still has some model volatility, and the real production is around ~13.3 million b/d.
In Q4 2023, our model showed US oil production averaging 13.296 million b/d. This means that US oil production will be exiting y-o-y flat.