HFI Research

HFI Research

Share this post

HFI Research
HFI Research
Everything You Need To Know About The Latest US Oil Market Data
Oil

Everything You Need To Know About The Latest US Oil Market Data

HFI Research's avatar
HFI Research
Jul 03, 2025
∙ Paid
2

Share this post

HFI Research
HFI Research
Everything You Need To Know About The Latest US Oil Market Data
1
1
Share

This week's EIA oil storage report was undeniably bearish. Total oil liquid stockpile increased by ~9.6 million bbls with builds in crude (+4.1 million bbls) and gasoline (+4.2 million bbls). While some of this could be attributed to holiday timing (July 4 week), the underlying data shows a mixed outlook ahead.

We will dive into everything in the data to help you understand the bigger picture.

Crude

This week's crude build is an anomaly.

Reason? EIA did not count crude imports and exports correctly. Because EIA uses customs data for exports, this week's figure of 2.305 million b/d was significantly lower than tanker tracking activities (~3.5 million b/d). As a result, EIA reported -984k b/d in adjustment.

But it wasn't just the crude exports EIA miscounted; crude imports were overstated as well.

In total, our modified adjustment jumped to ~800k b/d.

Historically, you can see that anytime the modified adjustment surprised to the upside, it reverses immediately after. We expect next week's report to correct this week's errors.

Looking at US commercial crude storage, things remain tight.

Commercial crude storage is hugging the lows we saw in 2022, and given the recent compression in Brent-WTI spreads, US crude exports will remain low in the coming weeks. This should result in a flattish crude storage outlook.

Unless we start to see Brent-WTI spreads widen, I don't think US commercial crude storage gets below ~405 million bbls.

US Crude Oil Production

This post is for paid subscribers

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2025 HFI Research
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture

Share