Global Oil Supplies Have Peaked For The Year, All Eyes On Demand Now

Thanks to the Saudi/Russia voluntary cut into year-end, global oil supplies have peaked for the year. One way we can track this is via global crude exports from Kpler.

The logic behind using crude exports to track global oil supplies is rather simple. If you are a crude exporting nation, your available crude for export derives from supply - demand. Anything in excess of what you consume will be exported out. 

Now of course, we are simplifying the real picture surrounding global oil supplies, but with crude exports representing ~42 million b/d, this gives us a good glimpse of where the growth is coming from.

For example, the US has been the key supply growth engine since COVID.

And because US shale produces mainly light sweet crude, the excess produced has to be exported out as US refineries require medium to heavy crude. This is why US crude exports can best illustrate just what is going on in the US.

As you can see, US supply growth is starting to stall, and we see this in our high-frequency tracker as well. Implied US oil production today is between ~13 to ~13.1 million b/d using EIA's new methodology.

Now if we exclude the US, you can see that global crude exports have peaked.