Global Oil Supply & Demand Update For July 2023
Well, well, well, we are now halfway through 2023 and the oil market is about to get a lot more exciting. There are 4 key themes we see going into year-end:
Saudi's voluntary cut of ~1 million b/d.
Russia's (new) voluntary cut announcement of 500k b/d. This brings their total to 1 million b/d.
US shale oil production peaking into year-end.
Global oil demand.
In our latest model update, we are assuming a few new assumptions:
US oil production peaking in Q3 at ~12.65 million b/d. We expect an exit of ~12.6 million b/d.
Russia's compliance is 50% putting production at ~10.5 million b/d vs 11 million b/d.
Saudi to maintain the voluntary production cut into year-end.
We continue to expect weak demand as a way of being conservative.
Because of the negative revision to US oil production and Russia, we now see a massive deficit taking place in Q4.