Please see the chronological order of the oil trade game plan write-ups:
August 25, Sept 1, Sept 8, Sept 23, Sept 30
In my last game plan article, I explained that:
All intervention policies were exhausted (US and Europe SPR, and fake peace-deal headlines).
I noted that the possibility of a deal was very low, and if the US did not concede to Iran’s demands, we would see escalation in the Oman Lane. We are seeing that now.
Finally, from a technical perspective, Brent and WTI have finished the technical consolidation and are now moving higher. I alerted readers that I bought more BNO January calls.
In today’s report, I will be a bit more extensive. I want to give you a high-level overview of how I think this oil trade will play out. Because this conflict is all-or-nothing, I think it is reasonable to assume a longer timeline and what that means for oil.
Let’s get started.