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(Idea) Sable Offshore - The End

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HFI Research
Oct 24, 2025
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Movie clapper, THE END text on cinema scene clapperboard. Filmmaking, video production. 3d render

The end is here for Sable. There are a lot of things to cover here, so readers must bear with me.

Here’s a list of the topics that we will cover:

  • Pipeline route - what it looks like, what needs to happen, and what’s next?

  • Company guidance on FPSO and the reality of the valuation math.

  • The end.

I will start by saying that we are no longer long Sable Offshore. We exercised our put hedge positions last week at an average price of ~$15.8 per share.

Pipeline Route

OSFM gave us the FOIA document today and simultaneously published the final restart plan on its website. In addition, it posted that it found “deficiencies” in its compliance with the State Waivers.

Source: OSFM

In a press release issued by Sable after the market close, it explained in its letter why the company believes it has complied with OSFM.

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