I broke my promise. I’m writing another Sable Offshore report after I promised my next write-up would be when we exit. In fact, not only did I not hold the promise of not writing another Sable report, but we also reported on two additional share purchases disclosed here and here.
Why am I writing (what I’m hoping to be the) final update?
Because there’s a lot of misinformation out there, and I want to clear it up for everyone.
In this report, I will discuss the following:
Final signature approval from Daniel Berlant, OSFM.
Floating production storage and offloading, FPSO, and why it’s being discussed as an alternative.
Timeline and what this all means.
The Final Stretch
As many of you may have already seen, the technical review part of the OSFM process is done. Jim Hosler, head of pipeline safety, is rumored to have finished the approval process and sent the package to Sacramento headquarters, where it is receiving final approval from California’s State Fire Marshal Daniel Berlant.
Many of the bulls, like myself, believed that the OSFM process is solely regulatory compliance. The consent decree specifies very clearly the steps Sable needed to take to be granted approval for restart. Once the steps are completed, Sable will then file the final restart plan (Sept 11), and OSFM will review and conclude whether to approve or deny.
We are now past the approval step and waiting for the final signature sign-off from the State Fire Marshal. Daniel Berlant’s role is mainly administrative, as Hosler and his team possess all the technical expertise to recommend whether to sign off or not.
But unless you were born in a cave yesterday, you must realize that the State Fire Marshal is a political appointee, and since the Governor of California appoints this person, the ultimate say is still up to Governor Newsom.
From the intel I’ve gathered, this is what I know with certainty:
There’s a lot of pressure from environmental groups urging Governor Newsom not to sign off, including people like Assemblymember Gregg Hart, the backer of the AB 1448 bill.
Newsom needs a political cover to make it obvious that signing off on the Sable restart is the correct thing to do. FPSO, which Sable is actively suggesting (more on this later), is being presented as an alternative in the event Governor Newsom plays political games behind the scenes.
Previously, Sable has operated under the good faith of California laws and process, but now that SB 237 has passed and with January 1, 2026, as a deadline, the company has switched strategies (FPSO route) as a tactic to expedite the approval process.
As a result, if the company’s strategy works (FPSO route being presented), then the sign-off from Berlant should be rather quick (in a week). If there are any additional delays beyond a week, the company will not sit around and will announce active alternative strategies that they have prepared.