(Idea) What Is My Game Plan For Sable Offshore Now?

Ding ding ding.

Judge Geck gave her tentative ruling today, and it was favorable for Sable Offshore. Here's the link to the ruling.

Here's a summary of the ruling:

• The preliminary injunction is granted, but it does not prevent the Fire Marshal from approving the pipeline. Note: The State court never had jurisdiction over the Fire Marshal because it was a Federal Consent Decree. That's been the argument all along!

• Sable can seek approval from the Fire Marshal, and if approved, it has to submit all the permits and documentation to the court, and wait 10 court days (2 weeks) before it can restart.

• The above bullet point is the important one. The 10 court days give the environmental group time to find arguments to derail Sable.

• At the end of the two weeks, if Judge Geck finds everything in order (all procedural tasks are completed correctly and permits are in place), she can lift the TRO, and Sable can restart the pipeline.

In essence, the Fire Marshal approval is the only remaining hurdle, followed by the pending 10 court days (two-week wait period).

And since I'm in the game of guessing, I estimate that the Fire Marshal approval will come before the end of next week at the latest. This will be followed up with an updated timeline of when SOC is expected to sell oil (likely the 2nd week of August).

Updated Price Assumption

Judge Geck's ruling was a surprise. It's not a green light, but it's not a red one. This ruling paves the path for a restart, and SOC's stock price reaction was in line with our path chart:

What's funny about today's price action was that it initially sold off because the headline read: PI was granted. But the details specified that Sable was able to seek the Fire Marshal's approval for the restart.

The stock initially dropped to the $19 to $20 range before surging up to the $27 to $28 range, closing at $28.34.