It's time for a comprehensive update on what our latest views are on oil, natural gas, and energy equities. It's an appropriate time to do this given that there are some new developments we are seeing that have slightly altered the way we are thinking about things.
But some big themes in the energy landscape aren't changing:
Natural gas will be the biggest beneficiary of the recent oil price downturn. In the near term, we expect prices to pull back further, but we expect summer natural gas prices to meaningfully move higher.
US shale oil production is slowing, and the incoming decline will be larger than the consensus forecast.
Global oil demand will continue to grow in the years to come, so any supply losses we see in the next 12-24 months will only sow the seeds for the inevitable oil bull market.
With that said, here is the action/game plan.
Energy Equities
In recent weeks, Jon has done extensive research on offshore drillers, and he concludes that if our conclusion is right about the incoming oil bull market, offshore drillers are life-changing opportunities.