Oil prices suddenly plunged earlier today on the news that the US and Iran are discussing sanction relief. In exchange for ceasing Iran's uranium enrichment activities at 60%, the US would allow Iran to export up to 1 million b/d and gain access to frozen funds abroad.
Now there's a particular language here that I am merely interpreting. Will the deal allow Iran to export 1 million b/d or 1 million b/d of additional crude?
I don't know, but I will assume the latter because Iran would never agree to the former considering it already exported ~1.4 million b/d of visible crude in May.
Now looking at Iranian crude exports, we've assumed at least an additional ~450k b/d of crude that has avoided satellite detection. If you combine that with the visible tanker data, Iran exported close to ~1.8 million b/d in May.
Assuming that the deal between the US and Iran is an additional ~1 million b/d on top of that, then Iran would be back to its theoretical max.