Is OPEC+ Trying To Force A Recession? (Part 2)
On June 25, we published an OMF titled, "Is OPEC+ Trying To Force A Recession?" In the article, our premise was that low OPEC+ crude exports in June could be due to seasonality and a one-off event. However, if it were repeated in July, we would need to revisit the topic more seriously.
Fast forwarding to today and with only 11 days of export data so far, OPEC+ crude exports look very low again.
This is primarily driven by the Saudis, which are showing crude exports reach a multi-decade low of ~5 million b/d. We don't think this will be the finalized figure, but even if crude exports averaged ~6.5 million b/d for the next 20 days, the overall average will be in the mid to high ~5 million b/d range.
This in combination with what I'm seeing from other OPEC+ producers is making me seriously consider the thesis that the Saudis are trying to force Biden out of office.