Stationary tankers have not been attacked since the start of the Iran war. Why? This is a dramatic step up the escalation ladder. Following the heightened attacks on tankers transiting the Oman Lane in the past few days, Iran has now attacked two stationary tankers: one near Qatar and one near the Fujairah ship-to-ship hub.
According to MerruX, whom I highly recommend you follow for real-time intelligence on the Strait of Hormuz situation, a large oil spill was observed near Fujairah.
He also created a pretty cool site called overwatchx.app.
The latest escalation matters because it is one step closer to escalation in Fujairah. Like the Strait of Hormuz card, an escalation to Fujairah is a card you can’t use again. Once you play it, you have to play it to the end.
The oil market implication here is that with the Oman Lane now contributing to ~14 million b/d of crude + product flow, any disruption here will immediately impact physical oil balances. Interestingly, if inefficient tanker transits shift from the oil shuttle trade to delivering crude elsewhere, tanker rates will fall, giving crude more room to rally.
At HFIR, we are also fortunate to have subscribers who are actually involved in the Oman Lane shuttle trade themselves, and based on the information they have shared with us, the current situation is completely unsustainable.