September is going to make a difference for the US natural gas market.
Source: Commodity WX Group
According to CWG, September 2026 is expected to be the second-hottest on record.
And despite Henry Hub remaining below $3/MMBtu, if the heat materializes + LNG feedgas demand coming back, I’m not so sure the market can just brush the tightness off.
One clear piece of evidence of incoming tightness is the power burn demand y-o-y chart. In 2025, population-weighted cooling demand came in just above the 30-year norm. This followed one of the coolest August months on record.
This time, however, cooling demand is expected to remain strong, which should keep storage injections low relative to the 5-year average.