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Memo

Memo - I'm Not That Smart, But I'm Not Going To Make The Same Mistake Twice

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Valuable lessons to take away from the asinine May to July oil price action.

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HFI Research
Jul 22, 2026
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By: Wilson

I am not that smart. If you are subscribed to me thinking that I’m smart, you are shit out of luck. Thankfully, investing/trading does not require raw intelligence. It just requires someone humble enough to admit that they aren’t that smart and, more importantly, learn from their own mistakes. As Buffett always said, temperament is more important than IQ (I hope he is right).

Long-time readers will know that I have no problem admitting to my mistakes. I own up to them because my profit & loss is tied to my writing, analysis, and trading decisions. If I’m wrong, I lose money. If I’m right, I make money. Nothing more, nothing less.

With that, it’s important to write a reflection memo piece on the things that didn’t go so well on the oil trade so far.

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