(MEMO) Memo - Memoirs From A Beaten Down Energy Investor
By: Wilson
I am tired. I really am. Take this week for example, oil prices are down, tech is rallying, and energy stocks are gaining no traction. Subscribers are messaging me left and right asking if I am still bullish on oil (yes, I am, by the way). So perhaps this is the sentimental bottom people are looking for because for the first time in a very long time, I am looking at stock ideas outside of the energy landscape.
I don't think people truly appreciate just how challenging the energy business really is. I think as the years go on and the more involved I get in the energy business, the more I'm starting to realize that I am the guy looking for 10-foot hurdles to jump over. Just take this week's EIA crude storage report for instance, consensus expected a small draw (1-2 million bbls), API shows a build, and we had -5 million bbls. And just after API released its figures, I tweeted out that the difference with EIA indicated the real report to show -4 million bbls.
Bam, the report comes out and it's just slightly below our estimate (-4.6 vs -5.2 million bbls). But oil prices sell off anyway, and algos were hunting for our stop-losses on our UCO long position.
So yes, I have the right to be tired. But I'm not going to give up, at least not now.