(MEMO) Memo - The Struggle (On Oil)
By: Wilson
When it comes to the oil market, I've been struggling a bit as of late. My goal is to analyze the market without any inherent biases, and more often than not, I'm finding myself biased. There are contradicting signals left and right and balancing them all has not been the easiest mental task.
I didn't plan on writing a memo today. The first article was a letter addressed to OPEC on the need for a production cut. However, after discussing with Dr. Anas Alhajji about the merits of the article, I decided to scrap it completely.
I thought then it would be a good idea to write an article on top of that to share with readers how I thought about the oil market. But after discussing the fundamentals with an oil trader, I decided to scrap that as well.
This is the leftover piece as a result of those two previously failed attempts. For those interested in whatever draft I have come up with, please feel free to email me and I can send it over.
But it's been a struggle as of late because the setup in the oil market is not as obvious as we all had hoped for. The uncertainty around what OPEC+ will do next along with the relentless bearish sentiment on 2025 oil market balances is tiring, to say the least. And for what it's worth, I am trying to be as objective as possible. I am looking at the data with a neutral lens and I can see both perspectives (bulls and bears), which is probably why it's been so difficult as of late.