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Natural Gas Bull Thesis Runs Into Its First Hiccup: The Dreaded Shoulder Season

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HFI Research
Apr 30, 2025
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Bump Written Yellow Off Road Traffic Sign Before Blue Sky

There's no other way to say this. There are going to be some ugly injection figures reported for natural gas storage over the coming weeks.

Looking at our latest storage injection estimates, total injection will be 118 Bcf higher than the 5-year average and 144 Bcf higher than last year for the next 5 reports.

This is largely due to 1) weak weather-related demand (residential/commercial) and 2) power burn demand.

In the coming weeks, power burn demand starts to seasonally increase, which should dampen some of the pressure we see for natural gas balance, but keep in mind that the real pickup in demand will start in June.

Meanwhile, the recent drop in natural gas has reduced net gas supplies to flat y-o-y.

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