HFI Research

HFI Research

Share this post

HFI Research
HFI Research
Natural Gas Flirts With $2 As Market Brushes Off Incoming Cold
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More

Natural Gas Flirts With $2 As Market Brushes Off Incoming Cold

HFI Research's avatar
HFI Research
Feb 06, 2024
∙ Paid
6

Share this post

HFI Research
HFI Research
Natural Gas Flirts With $2 As Market Brushes Off Incoming Cold
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
1
Share

Mother Nature is coming to the rescue, but as of this writing, the incoming cold is not enough to materially move natural gas storage lower.

TDDs

6-10 Day

10-15 Day

15-Day

As you can see, following the bearish 1-5 day period, weather does start to normalize with colder than normal weather returning. But there are several issues we still have with this:

  • Despite the colder-than-normal weather, storage projections are not meaningfully changing due to the bearish balances we are seeing in the near term.

  • Lower 48 gas production has all but recovered, which will result in the surplus balance going into the end of the withdrawal season.

  • And with very low demand expected over the next week, cash market will remain weak and with storage projections showing a surplus to the 5-year average, traders will have no incentives to go long natural gas.

Balance

All of these variables continue to make us gun-shy. While bullish weather, in itself, is a good catalyst to push prices higher, natural gas bulls need "very" bullish weather if it is to dampen the surplus we see in storage.

Subscribers will get real-time notification if we are to put on a long natural gas trade, and for now, we remain on the sidelines.

How much worse can this get?

This post is for paid subscribers

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2025 HFI Research
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture

Share

Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More