Natural Gas - Fundamental Balances Remain Very Bloated

Canadian wildfire in the Alberta region has prompted a flurry of shut-ins from producers. IHS estimated yesterday that ~3 Bcf/d of gas production is offline.

Despite a noticeable drop in Canadian gas net imports, the fundamental balance in the US gas market has worsened thanks in large part to LNG facility maintenance.

As you can see in the chart above, LNG feedgas has dropped materially after reaching an all-time high of ~15 Bcf/d in April. With levels now back to 2022, we are seeing total gas demand staying flat y-o-y.