Natural Gas - Nothing To See Here, Move Along

I wish I could be the harbinger of good news, but sadly, it's just not all that bullish. Warmer than normal weather is finally here and population-weighted cooling degree days are higher than the norm, but the US natural gas market remains in surplus.

Total gas supplies continue to materially outpace total gas demand (on a y-o-y basis). 

We estimate that surplus to be +1.4 Bcf/d.

And for the next 5 EIA natural gas storage reports, we see injections outpacing the 5-year average by ~49 Bcf. November storage is now expected to be 3.99 Tcf or meaningfully higher than the 5-year average of 3.656 Tcf.