HFI Research

HFI Research

Oil

Navigating The Oil Market In The Near Term

Conflicting signals are everywhere. Buckle up.

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HFI Research
May 20, 2025
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I am currently long WTI. I expect prices to move to $64 to $65 in the near term. However, conflicting signals are arising from the oil market, which warrant your attention and an explanation.

What are the variables?

  • Global refining margins (i.e. global oil demand proxy).

  • OPEC+ crude exports.

  • High-frequency inventory charts.

Global Refining Margins

Since the tariff war started, global oil demand, via the global refining margin proxy, is moving higher.

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