Next, We Watch Crude Exports

Saudi Aramco announced OSP today and it reduced Arab light to Asia by $0.25/bbl.

This is neither bullish nor bearish. The market had expected a cut between $0.35 to $1/bbl, but with a cut of $0.25/bbl, it appears to be more of a symbolic gesture. This move signals to me that Saudi is not interested in reducing supplies enough to piss off its long-time customers. So market share is still important, but it wasn't bearish because the pricing is still slightly more expensive than the market had expected.

Moving forward, the only way we will know if the Saudis are serious or not is by watching crude exports.