Oil 101 - Don't Fight The Saudis

On May 1, I published an article titled, "My Predictions For The Rest Of 2023." One of those predictions centered around OPEC+'s voluntary cut. Here's what I said:

So what's the timeline?

Inventory draws will begin in earnest starting in mid-May. Refinery throughputs will increase by then, which will translate into higher crude draws, and total liquids decline. Global oil inventory balance shows -1 million b/d in May followed by -1.3 million b/d in June. From July to December, inventories will draw on average ~1.4 million b/d.

I see Saudi, UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq following through on their voluntary production cuts. I don't see Russia reducing at all. The net export decline will be close to ~1 million b/d between these 5 countries.

Fast forwarding 2-weeks later, this is what crude exports for Saudi, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Russia look like month-to-date:

Total drop month-over-month is around ~1.5 million b/d and if you break down the exports further, the entirety of the decline is from the Saudis.