One Potential Catalyst In 2024 That Only One Firm Is Talking About

Over the last 2-days, we've had sell-side reports all confirming their view that oil should be rangebound from now to the end of 2024. Some sell-side firms like Morgan Stanley expect Brent to peak around $95/bbl with the Saudi/Russian voluntary cut explaining the totality of the deficits we are seeing. In contrast, others like Goldman expect $105/bbl to be the top as the deficits mount and push global oil inventories lower.

But there's one report that we read that's suggesting something else entirely. What is the risk that Russia increases its voluntary cut in 2024 to undermine the Biden administration?

BCA Research, known for its non-consensus calls, is saying that there is a real possibility that Russia further reduce oil production by April next year. Geopolitically speaking, you can easily make that argument as Putin would want to undermine Biden's re-election efforts. But what about fundamentally?

This is where things get interesting...