Should You Be Worried About The Oil Market?

First and foremost, I think it would be an extremely arrogant thing to say that the things happening in macro land will not impact oil demand. Like all things markets, perception is everything and if the broader public sees the headline news about bank failures, the immediate perception is that the economy is weak. This could translate to actual demand losses via less travel or spending. We don't know what we don't know, but to say that the banking crisis we see will have no impact would be irresponsible.

With that said, however, the signals that we watch closely to gauge oil demand remain supportive. The first and most important signal for 2023 is China's oil demand.

China's seaborne crude imports are coming in at the highest level since 2020. While it's not anywhere near the level we saw at the apex in 2020, I think it's safe to say that the swing buyer is buying whatever it can.