The First Bullish Oil Storage Report I've Seen In A While

It's been a while since I've seen an EIA oil storage report as bullish as this one. The last time I saw a report this bullish, we would have to go back to early 2022. But you might ask, "HFIR, crude saw a large build, what's so bullish about it?"

Well, here's something you might not have noticed from the report. EIA reported an overall total liquids draw of 7.7 million bbls. Crude storage saw a 6.2 million bbl build. According to our modified adjustment figure, we saw a jump to +817k b/d.

The jump in modified adjustment added ~5.719 million bbls. And as you will see in our real-time US oil production tracker, anytime the modified adjustment jumps like that, it's usually unsustainable.

As a result, the ~5.7 million bbls will be returned next week, which could see EIA surprise (to the bull side) vs our estimate. In other words, if the modified adjustment did not jump this week, total liquids would've seen a draw of over 10 million bbls.

But that's not all, here's what I see as being very bullish about this report.

Products, products, products.