The Market Is Making A Big Mistake Here On Oil

I am a strong advocate for listening to the market and hearing what it has to say. Ultimately, if you choose to fight the market, you better be right, or you will lose your shirt. In the case of the oil market, I firmly believe the market is making a huge mistake. 

For starters, speculator positioning has never been this bearish before.

Source: Giovanni Staunovo, CFTC

You couple this with a column piece John Kemp published today about how speculators are more bullish on petroleum products than crude, and you quickly realize the whole narrative is upside down.

In essence, John wrote that speculators are more bullish on petroleum products than crude because of 1) low inventories and 2) lack of refining capacity.

In my view, this is a very dated view and shows that the consensus doesn't really know what's going on.