The Oil Bull Thesis In Numbers

For 2023, the oil bull thesis hinges on 4 variables:

1. Global oil demand and how much China's oil demand rebounds. (Weighting over 60%)

2. Russia's incoming oil production decline.

3. OPEC+ production policy in June.

4. If more SPR will be used in H2 2023 to combat the incoming supply-driven deficit.

With that said, we have the most conservative global oil demand estimate on the street right now, and we still arrived at a deficit of ~1.51 million b/d by Q4 2023. 

As we will illustrate throughout this article, that is the oil bulls' margin of safety.