The Oil Bull Thesis In Numbers
For 2023, the oil bull thesis hinges on 4 variables:
Global oil demand and how much China's oil demand rebounds. (Weighting over 60%)
Russia's incoming oil production decline.
OPEC+ production policy in June.
If more SPR will be used in H2 2023 to combat the incoming supply-driven deficit.
With that said, we have the most conservative global oil demand estimate on the street right now, and we still arrived at a deficit of ~1.51 million b/d by Q4 2023.
As we will illustrate throughout this article, that is the oil bulls' margin of safety.