Following this weekend's OPEC+ meeting, Saudi Arabia has effectively implemented its own version of a "Saudi" put. Instead of relying on the compliance of others within OPEC+, Saudi announced that it will cut an additional 1 million b/d to the market in July along with the 500k b/d of voluntary cut. For July, this would put Saudi's oil production at ~9 million b/d.
In response to the voluntary production curtailment announcement, Saudi Aramco's official selling price or OSP announcement was equally reinforcing. Oil traders in Asia expected Aramco to reduce OSP due to the weaker physical market, but the Saudis, true to their words, increased instead.
The immediate impact of this is for traders to shun Saudi barrels and instead opt for whatever is available on the market. This would, in theory, tighten the physical oil market, resulting in inventory draws, and finally, pushing prices higher.
In this regard, Saudis know precisely what they are doing. By keeping the ~1 million b/d voluntary cut on a month-to-month basis, this would 1) tighten the physical oil market, which is precisely what's needed to improve sentiment in the market and 2) keep speculators at bay due to the nature of this cut.
Now looking at Saudi crude exports, May crude exports came in at ~6.5 million b/d, or a decrease of ~1 million b/d from April.
Assuming June exports are roughly the same, July exports could fall to as low as ~5.7 million b/d.
So yes, the supply cut will be real, the impact on inventories will be real, and the Saudi put is here.