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There's A Large Disconnect In Demand Figures
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There's A Large Disconnect In Demand Figures

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HFI Research
Jan 17, 2024
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There's A Large Disconnect In Demand Figures
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Q4 2023 has a lot of people scratching their heads. What was once thought of as one of the tighter quarters in 2023 turned out to be not so tight after all. In OPEC's latest oil market report, the difference is staggering.

OPEC global supply forecast

OPEC global demand forecast

Now you will notice that in Q4 2023, OPEC had global oil demand surging to 103.18 million b/d. This is in stark contrast to IEA's 102.2 million b/d.

On the supply side, OPEC had global supplies close to ~100.9 million b/d.

In theory, the delta between the two should have created a deficit of 2.28 million b/d. In reality, the deficit was closer to 300k b/d.

What happened to the other ~1.98 million b/d?

There are a few interesting observations to note. IEA has global oil supplies around ~102.3 million b/d for Q4 2023, which is ~1.4 million b/d higher, and oil demand at 102.2 million b/d, which is 1 million b/d lower.

From my perspective, IEA's estimates are at least somewhat more accurate of what happened in Q4 2023 than OPEC's. And because OPEC's demand estimates were likely way too high, it brings about another question, will it be correct going forward?

OPEC's Analysis

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