Tried And Tested, US Oil Production Exit Hits Our Target

I do not like to boast. It brings about a sense of false confidence. And for those of us that have been burned in the past, this results in a bit of paranoia and "jinx" anxiety. However, when it comes to US oil production, the nonstop grinding process we started in 2017 is finally starting to pay off.

On Feb 28, 2022, we published a report titled, "We Are Getting Good At Tracking US Oil Production, So Where Are We Headed?" In the article, we said:

Now looking ahead, US oil production has remained around this ~11.55 to ~11.7 million b/d level since December. November 2021 was an exception for the US with weather being nice and shale production at its peak, but as the wells get digested and production ramp tapers off, we won't see ~11.75 million b/d until late March to April.

US oil production should grow this year and with frac spread count now back to 290, we expect US oil production to exit this year around ~12.4 to ~12.5 million b/d. This is about ~250k b/d to ~300k b/d higher than our previous estimate. A higher frac spread count accounts for this delta.

With EIA reporting US oil production data for October 2022 at ~12.381 million b/d, we know that November US oil production is slightly higher with December volumes falling due to weather-related issues. In essence, US oil production is smack in line with our estimate of an exit between ~12.4 to ~12.5 million b/d.