While this week's EIA crude oil storage didn't appear all that bearish, the bearish variables are brewing underneath the surface. US crude oil production, according to our tracker, hit an all-time high for August.
This is the first time since we started tracking real-time US crude oil production that the data is showing +14 million b/d on a 4-week moving average basis.
Now, keep in mind that out of the ~14 million b/d, at least ~300k b/d of that will be condensate. However, even if we take that out, US crude oil production is averaging ~13.7 to ~13.75 million b/d in August.
What's really strange/interesting about the data is that you can see the material weakness (below chart) at the start of the year going into May 2025.
But this all changed in June. Following the price spike resulting from the Iran/Israel conflict, US crude oil production jumped from ~13 million b/d to ~13.7 to 13.75 million b/d (14 million b/d if you include condensate).