US Crude Oil Production Is Rebounding... Huh?

If you are looking at frac spread and rig counts as your guide to US crude oil production, I think you will be very disappointed when I tell you this: US crude oil production is moving higher in August.

For readers familiar with our expertise, you will know that we give weekly US crude storage estimates for the EIA oil storage reports. Depending on the degree of the overestimation or underestimation, we can derive the "implied" value for US crude oil production.

Thanks to this process, we've been able to call US crude oil production trends well before others see it in the data.

Well, we have bad news: US crude oil production is a lot more resilient than you think.