US Crude Storage Outlook - EIA Still Owes Us Barrels

For the week ending April 12, we have a crude build of 6.57 million bbls. This includes the SPR build of 700k bbls.

For readers who have followed our estimates closely, you will know that we said EIA miscounted crude imports/exports by ~12 million bbls in March. Since then, we have not seen the modified adjustment flip to the negative to account for this delta. As a result, one of these EIA reports will show a materially smaller crude build versus our estimate.

Looking at our US crude storage projection, this is what we are seeing: