For the week ending Jan 24, we have a crude build of 7.54 million bbls.
For readers that followed our last week's estimate, please note that we did not estimate that big of a drop in refinery throughput. This delta coupled with our miss on US oil production explained why US crude storage did not draw as much.
This report along with last week's report is hard to estimate due to the cold weather event we saw. Refinery throughput is expected to drop again this week. We are estimating ~15.5 million b/d down from 15.522 million b/d.
Based on Lower 48 natural gas production, we know US oil production dropped this week, so we are pegging it around ~12.5 million b/d.
In total, we see a large build. But I think this is a low-confidence forecast as the cold weather materially impacts the figures.