US Oil Production Is Peaking

At the start of the year, our base case was for US oil production to exit 2023 at around ~12.95 million b/d. For 2024, we expected an exit of 13.1 million b/d, and for 2025, we saw an exit of 13.35 million b/d. By 2025, we expected this to be the peak.

But following persistently weak oil prices throughout the year and a sustainable decline in frac spread counts, we are revising all of these figures lower. It appears that March's US oil production reading of ~12.7 million b/d may have been the peak for this year.

One of the easiest ways we track US oil production is by following associated gas production. And if you look at the latest chart, you can see the plateau happening now.