Yesterday's EIA monthly US oil production reporting is not getting enough attention amidst the bloodbath price action we saw across the board today. While the headline for US oil production showed a minor drop from 13.239 million b/d to 13.178 million b/d, what people didn't know was that using the production + adjustment method, US implied oil production actually fell from 13.45 million b/d down to 12.974 million b/d.
From February to May, the average US oil production (EIA 914 + monthly adjustment) is 13.312 million b/d.
In Q4 2022, using the same methodology, US oil production averaged 13.183 million b/d.
In essence, US oil production has grown by 129k b/d since Q4 2022. If that's not a stalling growth picture, then I don't know what is.
This has also been clearly illustrated in our real-time US oil production chart. Based on the latest data, US oil production is back down to ~13.1 million b/d. This means that since Q4 2022, we've had no real material growth out of US shale.