US Oil Production Slowdown Is Real
Yesterday's EIA monthly US oil production reporting is not getting enough attention amidst the bloodbath price action we saw across the board today. While the headline for US oil production showed a minor drop from 13.239 million b/d to 13.178 million b/d, what people didn't know was that using the production + adjustment method, US implied oil production actually fell from 13.45 million b/d down to 12.974 million b/d.
From February to May, the average US oil production (EIA 914 + monthly adjustment) is 13.312 million b/d.
In Q4 2022, using the same methodology, US oil production averaged 13.183 million b/d.
In essence, US oil production has grown by 129k b/d since Q4 2022. If that's not a stalling growth picture, then I don't know what is.
This has also been clearly illustrated in our real-time US oil production chart. Based on the latest data, US oil production is back down to ~13.1 million b/d. This means that since Q4 2022, we've had no real material growth out of US shale.