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(WCTW) Come On, That's Too Obvious!

Saudi's oil policy is on full display. For the people who are aware, this is almost too obvious!

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HFI Research
Aug 07, 2025
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Shorten process, simplify, and easy communication concept

Oh man, oh man, oh man, OPEC+ or the V8 is finally done with the 2.2 million b/d voluntary production curtailment. Over the weekend, the group announced another truncated production increase of 548k b/d, which perfectly aligns with our view that the curtailment would end by the end of July/early August.

On paper, that's a lot of barrels. For the uninitiated, 2.2 million b/d is a lot, but is it really though?

Since the truncated production increase announcement in April, OPEC+ crude exports are higher by ~400k b/d. That's a fraction of the headline increase. But for those who have stayed up to date with our write-ups, none of this is new, and I don't want to rehash the same thing over and over again.

Instead, I will show you via factual data that everything we've written about is coming to fruition. And at the end, I will discuss what that means for the oil market and energy stock positioning.

The Obvious

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