(WCTW) Let's Get This Over With, A Look At 2025 Oil Market Balances
The US Election is next Tuesday and for those of you who have been hammering my inbox about the Biden administration being relentless on lower oil prices, you have been proven right so far. And with the Israel/Iran escalation looking like it is over in the near term (at least before the US election), geopolitical risk premiums are evaporating from the oil market.
From now to the end of 2024, these are the key focus points for readers:
US election results (Trump or Harris).
OPEC+ policy in early December.
US oil production capex guidance (November).
Oil inventory balance in Q4.
China's fiscal policy announcements.
I'm glad we are finally past the geopolitical distractions. It's time for everyone to go back to the fundamentals and focus on balances for 2025.
2025 Balance - Harris or Trump?
In our last week's WCTW, we wrote that Trump would likely be victorious. And fast forwarding to today, his odds have increased further according to ElectionBettingOdds.com.
But for the purpose of this article, we will discuss a few scenarios on the table under both a Harris administration and a Trump administration. Whoever wins the election will have a meaningful impact on global oil supply & demand balances.
Under Harris: