With oil prices trading near multi-year lows as 2025 comes to a close, we want to give you our prediction on the major oil themes to pay attention to in 2026. These “signals” will help guide you in understanding how to 1) perceive the oil market, 2) navigate the treacherous landscape, and 3) how to invest in what we believe to be the start of the multi-year oil bull cycle.
Here are the major oil market themes we see in 2026:
The end of non-OPEC supply growth.
OPEC+ production capacity revealed.
Sanctioned barrels and the dynamics with unsanctioned barrels, what that entails for global oil market balances.
From an energy investing standpoint, we see the following:
Oilfield servicing stocks to take a breather following restrained capex spending from producers.
Integrated oil majors continue to be the best positioned in the energy sector as refining margins remain elevated. We think integrated oil majors will outperform both refineries and producers.
Oil producers will underperform relative to oil in 2026. Energy stock valuations do not factor in the current depressed oil price environment. When oil prices rebound, oil producers will lag.
High-quality MLPs will outperform producers.
Offshore stocks will make their final multi-decade bottom. Seadrill could be acquired making the competitive landscape that much more attractive in the long-run.