(WCTW) My Thoughts On The Oil Market And The Pivot

I've thought long and hard about the WCTW I was going to publish today. At first, I thought I should double down on the false narrative developing around OPEC+'s recent rumored production increase.

My conversation with Dr. Anas Alhajji suggests that even if OPEC+ increases production in Q4 2024, the compensation cuts from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia will make the incoming increase negligible. In addition, Dr. Alhajji also pointed out in our conversation that because the cut is voluntary by nature, the Saudis could still keep production low.

But as this false market narrative develops and I feel the urge to keep defending my anchoring bias (oil prices going up), I couldn't help but feel a deja vu moment from back in 2018.

Learning from the past...