(WCTW) The Inevitable Outcome

The economic tit-for-tat won't last, but that doesn't mean a recession won't happen.

Over the weekend, I saw an alarming slide deck that went viral in the finance X community. This slide deck is from Apollo Global Management's Torsten Slok. And it especially gained notoriety when it depicted the rough timeline of when the tariffs (implemented on Liberation Day) would hit US consumers and businesses.

Now, the first thought in everyone's mind is: if this is becoming viral, doesn't this, in itself, become a contrarian indicator?

In this case, no.

Why?

Because it is obvious.

It's obvious to me that the tariffs implemented will create havoc in the supply chains.

It is obvious that businesses are facing an insane amount of uncertainty regarding capital investments and hiring.

And it is especially obvious when it comes to pricing. Businesses will pass along the increase in cost, and if they are not able to, they will cut costs, and that will imply lower headcounts.

All of these obvious things to me are now showing up in the data, which is troubling considering that we haven't seen the real impact of the tariffs hit just yet.

But more specifically, three charts worry me the most, and they are related to the consumers.