Global oil demand growth this year has been weak. That's not just the bears talking, this is a fact. China's oil demand growth y-o-y is tracking ~300k b/d and the latest figures showed this summer's growth falling y-o-y. But aside from the weak global oil demand, consensus is turning super bearish on 2025 oil market balances. The two key drivers are 1) weak global oil demand growth and 2) strong non-OPEC supply growth.
But how true are both of these drivers?
We got you covered. We will explain in this article why the consensus is so bearish, what could go right for the oil bulls, and what could go wrong.