HFI Research

HFI Research

Share this post

HFI Research
HFI Research
Weather Models Remain Bearish, Natural Gas Needs A Cold January
Natural Gas

Weather Models Remain Bearish, Natural Gas Needs A Cold January

HFI Research's avatar
HFI Research
Dec 13, 2024
∙ Paid
6

Share this post

HFI Research
HFI Research
Weather Models Remain Bearish, Natural Gas Needs A Cold January
1
Share

We are halfway through December and the heating demand setup so far is mixed. We started heating demand with meaningfully colder than normal weather only to see the bearish weather return in the latest outlook. According to CommodityWx Group, heating demand for December is coming in right around the seasonal norm.

Image

Source: Commodity Wx Group

From a storage balance perspective, the large draw we see this week will be followed up by another decent draw in next week's EIA natural gas storage report.

After that, storage draws will be below the 5-year average resulting in a surplus of 36 Bcf versus the 5-year storage over the next 3 reports.

Despite the bullish draw we saw from this week's report (-190 Bcf), natural gas storage is still expected to be in a surplus going into 2025. This is why the natural gas market needs a cold January or else the bulls will have to wait another year before bullish prices enter the calculus.

Weather Remains Bearish

While there are some people on X talking about how there's a potential polar vortex coming, there are no signs of that in the ECMWF-EPS 15 day outlook.

HDDs

6-10 Day Outlook

10-15 Day Outlook

15-Day Cluster

This post is for paid subscribers

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2025 HFI Research
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture

Share