I am down, but I am not out. My July 17 call options went to call heaven today. May you rest in peace. I thought I gave myself enough time, I clearly didn’t.
When a trade seems too good to be true, it usually is. I don’t think I could have seen the price action even if you had told me what the future entailed. If I had only the geopolitical events handed to me, but not the price chart, I would never have expected Brent to remain below $90/bbl despite both the US and Iran returning to all-out war.
But my experience in oil trading has taught me enough humility to expect the unexpected, and while I took on a lot of risk in my personal trading account, I did practice prudence in the broader portfolio.
In this quick update, I want to share how I’m thinking about the oil trade and the portfolio.